"You combine the power of technology, which allows you through Reddit postings to magnify your individual impact, with some use of leverage and very targeted bets, they can have a significant influence, particularly on areas of vulnerability because of the short positions," Paulsen said. Instead draft guys who will score the highest expected points for their cost (which IMO is mostly just based on who’s done well in the bast, regardless of situation changes)."Retail investors with the help of technology acting as a union in attacking is a new phenomenon," said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group. Point being it’s clear you don’t need to be perfect in what players you pick in order to win, so there’s no reason to try. Both teams are far from perfect, yet still won due to a combination of playoff matchups and solid foundations. I stopped believing in this idea after looking at the winning BBM1 and 2’s lineups. That ensure you will get more points than the teams who loaded up on WR and have a bunch of injured TE’s and RBs later in the year.įinally a word on upside. Usable weeks are the name of the game here, where you just hope 1 of your 3 TE’s and 1 of your 4-5 backup RBs can score a TD or 2. So instead you should draft lots of late RBs and TE’s, where their opportunity cost is less than what it was earlier. MVS and Desean Jackson are the exceptions not the rule. Looking at the date, most late round WR’s won’t have a week where they score more than 15 points in. This is because late round WRs score the same amount of point as the other positions on average, and rarely have true spike weeks. Ideally by round 10 you will have 5-6 WRs, so you’re good to draft 1 more and stop. His price was too high.įinally as more and more WR go off the board you can start filling in RBs, TE’s, and QBs. Mahomes had a solid year but still had a below average advance rate last year. It’s fine to draft guys in round 5, but as you increase a QBs draft capital you both lower his ceiling and raise his required floor. And if you do I’d make sure to go 5 WR after 7 picks.įor QB just don’t draft your first guy super early or super late. You can go one other position beyond your first RB in the first 6 rounds if you’d like, but it’s not necessary and you should never go beyond that 1. So you should be drafting as many here as possible. So while you could get lucky and draft 2 elite RBs by round 3b the odds of this happening are low enough of this happening and having a good enough team behind it that I’d rather cap my upside a small amount and get a higher expected points amount by just going 1 RB and 1 WR.Įarly round (first 5 rounds) TE’s have lower expected points than both these so best to ignore them for now.īeyond this midround WR on average vastly outscore the other skill positions and get the most spike weeks as well. The only major busts at WR where Calvin Ridley and Hopkins, and both still had some solid weeks. Meanwhile Devanta Adams Tyreek hill, Stephon Diggs, Justin Jefferson all did better than these guys. For example, while DK Metcalf and Brown where considered bust at the WR position, they still scored in the range or more than Zeke, CMC, Barkley, Henry, Kamara, Gibson, and CEH. Reason for this that while certain upside RBs will reach/exceed elite WR production (JT, Harris, Austin E, and Mixon last year), on average those drafted in the first 2 rounds will score less points than their WR counterparts. After that you should finish with a 3 TE’s, 6-7 WR, 2-3 QBs, and 5-7 RBs. This build is going Hero RB with at least 4 WR in the first 6 rounds. I think this is fine way of introducing structure and the pros and cons of build paths, but IMO right now there is a clear right answer for roster construction.
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